Charting unknown Himalayan waters

By Navin Singh Khadka 
Environment reporter, BBC News


In the wake of a recent controversy over the retreat of Himalayan glaciers in which the UN's climate science body admitted that it was an error to assert that they would disappear by 2035, water availability has emerged as a key issue with even more uncertainty.

Receding Himalayan glaciers grabbed headlines because they feed major rivers in South Asia and some parts of Southeast Asia, which is home to a sizeable proportion of the planet's population.

If the glaciers significantly retreated or even disappeared, it would be an issue of life and death for the many millions of people who depend on these rivers.

But now that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has said that it was a mistake to say the glaciers will be gone in a matter of decades, does that mean water is not a worrying issue any more?

Many scientists believe it is - even more so given the uncertainty surrounding the future impacts of climate change in a region of not only high population, but one of high population growth.

The broad consensus is that the glaciers themselves are indeed retreating, although the rate of the recession may be debatable.

However, there are other climate-influenced factors that affect river flows, such as changes in precipitation, snowfall and regional temperature.

Uncertain times

"There has been too much focus on glaciers whereas there are other factors like precipitation and snowfall that affect the levels of waters in rivers downstream from the eastern Himalayas," says Mats Eriksson, a senior hydrologist with the Nepal-based International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), which has carried out several studies on the glaciers in the Hindu Kush Himalayas.

Below the eastern part of the Himalayas are major rivers like the Ganges and the Bramhaputra, as well as their tributaries.

These are vital lifelines for millions of people in India, Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan and Tibet.

A recent study for the World Bank has shown that the volume of water resulting from glacial melt in Nepal makes up less than 5% of the flows of rivers leaving the country and contributing to the Ganges downstream.

"That is, about 95% or more of the river flow is the result of rain and melting seasonal snow," said report co-author Richard Armstrong, a glaciologist from the University of Colorado at Boulder, US.

If that is true, rivers downstream of the eastern Himalayas will hardly be affected, even if the glaciers recede or disappear.

However, would the other contributing factors to the rivers' flow, such as precipitation and snowfall, remain the same in the changing climate?

No, say scientists, but whether that will lead to rise or fall of rivers' levels - and by how much and when - are the questions still waiting to be answered.

"We are seeing some changes in the monsoon," Dr Eriksson said of the seasonal precipitation system that shapes the climate in this part of the region.

"Last year, for example, the monsoon arrived one month late in Nepal and then some places saw 80mm of water in a day during the delayed rainy season.

"But there has been no consistent measurement of precipitation and temperature and there is a lack of proper studies."

'Heat trapping aerosols'

Some scientists believe absorption of solar radiation by aerosols (dust particles and carbon soot) can heat the atmosphere and accelerate regional impacts of global warming, which in turn affect water resources.

William Lau, who heads the atmospheric sciences branch at Nasa's Goddard Flight Center, carried out a study in India last year and found that, as a result of aerosols, regional temperature was rising much faster than expected.

And that, he said, could influence the monsoon systems, resulting in less water availability in the region.

But Dr Armstrong said a warming climate could also mean a stronger monsoon bringing more precipitation that could increase stream flows.

"Having said that, it should be noted that future precipitation patterns predicted by climate models are highly variable and there is a very little regional agreement among the models," he said.

High variability is also an issue with the flow of rivers in the western Himalayas that do not fall within the monsoon regime.

"There is no clear-cut signal as there is a large variation between average annual flows," said Arshad Muhammad Khan, a physicist who heads the Global Change Impact Studies Centre in Pakistan.

"For example, in the Indus River, the maximum flow is twice of that of the minimum."

Unlike the Ganges, rivers like the Indus in the western part of the Himalayas are heavily dependent on glaciers, as this region does not get monsoon rains.

But even here, glacial status is not reported to be uniform.

Rising or falling flows?

Some scientists say increasing temperature has meant that glaciers don't get enough snowfall during winter and therefore river flow during summer is dwindling.

"We have seen the decline in the flow of the Indus, Chenab and Jhelum rivers," says Professor Mohammad Sultan Bhat of Kashmir University, who has conducted field studies with India's flood and irrigation department.

"We have recorded a decrease of 40% in the flow of Jhelum's tributary river… that is fed by the receding Kolahi glacier."

But, Kenneth Hewitt, a glaciologist from Canada who has been doing field studies in Pakistan's Karakoram mountains, told BBC News last October that he had seen at least half a dozen glaciers there advancing since he saw them five years ago.

With glaciers offering such complex pictures, combined with precipitation and temperature patterns becoming increasingly complicated, the region's river systems that depend on all these factors cannot be simpler.

Politics and geography, experts say, have made understanding the situation even more difficult.

"Some countries in the region are not willing to share water-related data because they regard it as confidential," said Dr Eriksson of ICIMOD.

"Since it is difficult to access them, proper studies on water availability remain a major challenge."

Mountain areas can also play a role in climate change mitigation.

The potential impacts of climate change in the mountains listed above have a multitude of socioeconomic implications. These include direct effects of the changes on water resources and hydropower generation, on slope stability, and on hazards relating to avalanches and glacier lakes, which in turn impact the well being and livelihoods of people.

WAteR:"Water crisis India’s rural-urban rift"

WITH 17 PERCENT of the world's population but just 4 percent of its fresh water, India is struggling with a water crisis that has gripped the entire country. As the population of 1.1 billion people grows -- by 18 million a year -- the situation is only expected to worsen.

The vast majority of water in India is used for agriculture, but increasing migration to cities and towns and rapid industrialization is creating new needs. The World Bank projects household water use in urban areas to double by 2025, and industrial use to triple.

The distribution of water is becoming a zero-sum game between cities and the countryside that surrounds them, "The demand for water has become so great in cities that the only available option is to start tapping agricultural areas," Might in future lead to potential "small civil wars" over water between urban users, farmers and industry.

"There will be constant competition over water, between farming families and urban dwellers, environmental conservationists and industrialists, minorities living off natural resources and entrepreneurs seeking to commodify the resources base for commercial gain"

-UNICEF report on Indian water.

More than two billion people worldwide live in regions facing water scarcity and in India this is a particularly acute crisis. Millions of Indians currently lack access to clean drinking water, and the situation is only getting worse. India’s demand for water is growing at an alarming rate. India currently has the world’s second largest population, which is expected to overtakeChina’s by 2050 when it reaches a staggering 1.6 billion, putting increase strain on water resources as the number of people grows. A rapidly growing economy and a large agricultural sector stretch India’s supply of water even thinner. Meanwhile, India’s supply of water is rapidly dwindling due primarily to mismanagement of water resources, although over-pumping and pollution are also significant contributors. Climate change is expected to exacerbate the problem by causing erratic and unpredictable weather, which could drastically diminish the supply of water coming from rainfall and glaciers. As demand for potable water starts to outstrip supply by increasing amounts in coming years, India will face a slew of subsequent problems, such as food shortages, intrastate, and international conflict.

Figure 3: Utilizable water, demand, and available water

India is facing a looming water crisis that has implications not only for its 1.1 billion people, but for the entire globe. India’s demand for water is growing even as it stretches its supplies. Water infrastructure is crumbling, preventing the government from being able to supply drinking water to its citizens. Pollution is rampant due to unfettered economic growth, poor waste management laws and practices. Although many analysts believe that demand will outstrip supply by 2020, there is still hope for India. Water scarcity in India is predominantly a manmade problem; therefore if India makes significant changes in the way it thinks about water and manages its resources soon, it could ward off, or at least mollify, the impending crisis. 

If the country continues with a business as usual mentality the consequences will be drastic. India will see a sharp decrease in agricultural production, which will negate all of the previous efforts at food security. India will become a net importer of grain, which will have a huge effect of global food prices, as well as the global supply of food. A rise in food prices will aggravate the already widespread poverty when people have to spend larger portions of their income on food. In addition to devastating the agricultural sector of India’s economy, the water crisis will have a big effect on India’s industrial sector, possibly stagnating many industries. Finally, India could become the stage for major international water wars because so many rivers that originate in India supply water to other countries. India has the power to avoid this dark future if people take action immediately: start conserving water, begin to harvest rainwater, treat human, agricultural, and industrial waste effectively, and regulate how much water can be drawn out of the ground.

Water-scarce India, too, weighs a return to ancient practices

In parts of India, the sophistication of a person could traditionally be judged by the number of empty pits in his, or her, village. The pits were dug to catch and store the monsoon. The more pits, the more advanced the village. Owning them was a sign of having tamed the rains. Monsoon pits have all but disappeared from India's cities now, and are falling into disrepair in the countryside, abandoned in a decades-long shift from local water management to a centralized government effort to smooth the lush but fickle rains into a steadier, more equitable source of livelihood.

 "We need to stop looking at the government for the solution. We need to do what we can, and do it locally."

Water is increasingly becoming a scarce commodity in India. It can no longer be considered a gift of the gods, but needs to be harvested, conserved and utilized in the most appropriate manner rather than just constructing gigantic dams which not only dislocate existing habitations but ( floods and other environmental problems, India needs to focus its efforts on developing and re\-indigenous water technologies. Traditional water harvesting systems exist all over India but serving India for several millennia; they are dying a slow death.

Food must not be reduced to security ::Ela R. Bhatt :: INDIAN EXPRESS Fri Dec 23 2011

The world food system today is far too complex for common sense to understand. It raises many questions: If safe, nutritious food is a fundamental right, why are one billion people living with hunger? 

Why do farmers and farm workers remain starved/half-starved? Why are people in food-exporting countries living with hunger? If the value of annual global exports in agriculture products is in billions, why are agricultural labourers and farmers in the highest level of global poverty? More than half the world’s workforce is engaged in agricultural production — why, then, are their working conditions killing their well-being? Women farmers often complain: “The food we produce we do not eat, the food we eat we do not produce!” Something is fundamentally wrong in our approach to food and hunger.

Moreover, for people, food has a sense of belonging; of home. Food is many-layered; from the cosmos to livelihood to ritual to myth. It is our life’s culture. Therefore, it cannot be just reduced to security. Food security is the language of a state. That has been reduced to business and trade opportunity. One is the result of failed political economy, the other, failed morality.

Historically, farming was the beginning of human civilisation. Today, in India, the face of agriculture is female. Farmers’ lives are being threatened as subsistence is threatened. Diversity in agriculture is being destroyed.

We have to protect ways of life and livelihoods of the farming communities. To protect food security, we must protect the base of agriculture, small farmers, their produce, the locality of farming. We must protect food and food growers where the food grows. To protect food security, we must understand security needs autonomy that grants diversity that stems from locality. Autonomy, diversity and locality are the fundamentals of food security.

I wish to suggest my 100 Mile Principle, which stems from the ecology of food that we see being ruthlessly violated.

The 100 Mile Principle weaves decentralisation, locality, size and scale, to livelihood. What one needs for livelihood as material, energy and knowledge should stem from areas around us. Seed, soil, water are forms of knowledge that need to be retained locally. Security stems from local innovations, not distant imports. Let us begin the principle with our staple food. Essentially, the organic human link with nature has to be restored. The millenia-old link between production and consumption has to be recovered. Ultimately, nature as cosmology is the weave of life. Let us weave it tight.

The writer is the founder of the Self-Employed Women’s Association of India (SEWA)